Is Agile Sustainable? Four Future Scenarios

The future isn’t certain or predictable. That doesn’t mean we give up and wait for the future to arrive. Instead, we study the future using concepts from future studies, also known as strategic foresight. In this case, we will look at the Future of Agile.

In this workshop/talk, we will:

• Cover a brief overview of future studies
• Describe and discuss four possible alternative futures – Four Tomorrows

Consider where to go from here:

• What future do you want your organization to reach?
• What future do you think your organization will reach?
• What future do you want your organization to avoid?

We’ll conclude with thoughts on how to develop and improve our sense of foresight by blending short-term planning, mid-term planning/forecasting, and long-term forecasting.

Meet Anthony (Tony) Akins

“I’ve been in the software development industry for just over 40 years, 15 years of that in management, and 12 years as an “official” consultant. I say “official” because, for most of my career, I have been a consultant for the companies I work for. Once I’ve been someplace for a while, people ask me how I would do something, solve a problem, improve a group’s performance, help people understand new things, develop and manage a plan for change, you know, the kind of things a consultant does.”

“My ‘official’ first Agile experience was in 2000 when I read XP Explained by Kent Beck, but my first Agile effort was in 1984-1985 at IBM San Jose Research Lab. I know, I know, Agile didn’t exist then but bear with me. Every Monday our group of 30sh developers met to discuss our plan for the week. Every Friday we demonstrated what we had accomplished for the week. We finished our planned work and more in seven months, two months ahead of schedule.”

“I took what I learned from that experience, continued to read and study, and applied all of it when I ran my own teams and organizations. In 1999/2000 when this Agile thing came up, I recognized elements of what I had learned, experienced, and done over the years but I also learned new perspectives and concepts.”

“Simply put… Agile is taking what we know works and doing it all the time on small pieces/chunks of work. It isn’t about developing software. Agile is about designing, creating, and improving anything.”