Abstract/Description

You know "collaboration over contract negotiation", right? Metrics often drive a wedge between management/stakeholders and the team, none more so than forecasting metrics. However, when you give a probability distribution as the answer to the question, "How long will it take?" instead of a single date, an amazing transformation happens. Suddenly, the team and management/stakeholders start collaborating to manage tradeoffs and risk. So, how do you generate a probabilistic forecast?

Maybe you've heard of Monte Carlo simulation. Maybe you've seen probabilistic forecasting techniques demonstrated or even used. But you just don't understand how it works. This talk is a gradual introduction of these techniques. You need to know nothing about combinations and permutations. You don't need to know how to apply complicated formulas. You need only have the ability to understand the rules to a simple strategy game.

This talk starts off explaining the simplest form of probabilistic forecasting using throughput/velocity as an example that anyone can follow. We'll then layer on more sophistication (but no complicated math) and discuss the tradeoffs of each approach along the way. In the end you'll have everything you need to understand and make use of probabilistic forecasting.

Additional Resources

About the Speaker(s)

Larry Maccherone is an industry-recognized thought leader on agile, metrics, and cybersecurity. He currently helps a number of companies including Comcast, AgileCraft, and Agility Health. Previously, Larry led the insights product line at Rally Software which enabled better decisions with data, leveraged big data techniques to conduct ground-breaking research, and offered the first-ever agile performance benchmarking capability. Before Rally, Larry worked at Carnegie Mellon with the Software Engineering Institute (SEI) and CyLab for seven years conducting research on cybersecurity and software engineering metrics with a particular focus on reintroducing quantitative insight back into the agile communities. Contact Larry on his LinkedIn page: https://www.linkedin.com/in/larrymaccherone