Science has finally approved it: Forecasting complex projects is a deception. Moreover, forecasts hinder innovations. Daniel Kahneman, Nobel Prize Winner in Economic Sciences and psychologist verified in many cases, that forecasting of complex projects is impossible. Yet still, we keep losing time trying to do exactly that. Beyond Budgeting (see e.g. http://www.bbrt.org/) came empirically to the same findings and offers a concept for controlling corporations without budgets. Additionally Beyond Budgeting provides advice for controlling even long-term complex projects. Agile methodologies generally recommend developing a long-term plan on a coarse-grained level only and coming up with detailed short-term plans iteratively.
I'm working on large and complex agile projects for more than 10 years. However, learning about Kahneman's and the Beyond Budgeting folks' work helped me a great deal in better understanding how planning, estimating and budgeting relate and why the traditional approaches don't work. Of course, we all know how this works in the small, how to plan and steer a project by iterations. Yet, how will you get the budget for starting a large agile project, how do you know how your tiny iterations (across many feature teams) fit the long-term project goal?
This is not about small simple projects. It is about complex projects, e.g. projects with 50-300 developers, taking 3-5 years to finish or similarly large product (line) development.

In this talk I want to provide insights in the latest scientific research and show as well how Beyond Budgeting and Agile principles can be combined so that even complex projects remain controllable.

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About the Speaker(s)

Jutta works as an independent coach, consultant, trainer, author, and speaker (https://www.jeckstein.com/). She has helped many teams and organizations worldwide to make an agile transition. She has a unique experience in applying agile processes within medium-sized to large distributed mission-critical environments. She has published her experience in many books: - Company-wide Agility with Beyond Budgeting, Open Space & Sociocracy (with John Buck), see https://www.agilebossanova.com/ - Diving for Hidden Treasures: Uncovering the Cost of Delay in your Project Portfolio’ (with Johanna Rothman) - Agile Software Development in the Large’ - Agile Software Development with Distributed Teams’ - Retrospectives for Organizational Change She is a member of the Agile Alliance (having served the board of directors from 2003-2007) and a member of the program committee of many different American, Asian, and European conferences, where she has also presented her work. Jutta holds a M.A. in Business Coaching & Change Management, a Dipl.Eng. in Product-Engineering, and a B.A. in Education.